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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

But this year's field is distinctly different. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent also-rans rising collectively. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing five other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still